Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
